Diskussion zu TUI

[todi1]

https://www.ntg24.de/TUI-Am-Limit-31052024-AGD-Aktien

[todi1]

Lh Analyse folgt:
“Currently, 5 of 17 analysts are at a "BUY" here - so you can see, that there are not many that are convinced this company has a clear enough upside here. The analysts are expecting the company to actually consider a dividend for this year - one that would result in a yield of 3.5%, and would increase the return profile of the investment considerably.

However, until this is declared, I point clearly to the fact that Lufthansa misses analyst estimates 50% of the time with either a 10% or 20% margin of error, and those misses are on the negative side, with differences of upwards of 100%.

So to state that you believe with high conviction that Lufthansa can achieve this or that, you're in a minority, and statistics and historical trends are not on your side, given how much money shareholders have lost over time by investing in this business at the "wrong" price.
Because if you want 1% returns annualized, you can put your money in any savings account that pays interest and does better at lower risk.

My thesis for the company is as follows, and I would consider buying Lufthansa, at the highest, for €5.5/share to expect a solid double-digit upside. But even then I would be careful.“

[todi1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.874.334 von 8-lagig am 01.06.24 10:32:52

Tui mit LH vergleichen ist schkecht.
Im Februar in Seeking Alpha Wolf Report hat eine Analyse von LH geschrieben.
Zitat daraus:
“Deutsche Lufthansa Valuation - not much upside, I retain "HOLD".

What the upside is here is difficult to see. I choose to forecast Deutsche Lufthansa at a 7-10 P/E average, to avoid the GFC, but to include COVID-19, which puts the company at 4-6x P/E - justified given the volatility and mostly negative returns over time.

If we forecast the company at the average or midpoint of around 5x, the company does not manage an upside of more than 5.6% per year - and that includes the company's dividend.
Airlines are a very tricky sort of investment, and in my experience, people take what they invest in far too lightly. They don't give risk considerations the same attention they should, and they also don't ask the fundamental question if a company is really that much more attractive than a far safer alternative. I know that because I work with this professionally, and I used to be similar when I started investing.

I have invested more in such turnarounds over the past few years, successfully. Rolls-Royce (OTCPK:RYCEF) was a very good example of such an investment, and I am prepared as of this article to give a price target for Lufthansa. But it might be a target that very few agree with.

S&P Global goes from €6.6 to €15, with a current share price of €7.7 native. I would say a fair price target that I would buy the company at is €5.5 - to find a good conservative upside for this company - no higher than that.“

[Tomtom10]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.874.334 von 8-lagig am 01.06.24 10:32:52

Zitat von 8-lagig:

Zitat von Maker123: Nur mal so eine Idee. Wir alle stochern ja im Dunkel, wie das mit den ETFs genau funktioniert. ..... Demnach sollte es ordentlich hoch gehen bis zur Aufnahme in den MDax. Würde aufgrund des Trendkanals 8,30 bis 8,50€ erwarten. Was denkt ihr dazu?

Je mehr ich über den Tellerrand sehe und mir andere Werte ansehe, um so mehr rücke ich von "Traumkursen" oberhalb 8 Euro, oder nur, bescheiden, konstante 8 Euro, ab. Ich sag nur Lufthansa als Vergleich. Wo stehen die ? Wieviel haben die doch gleich im letzten Jahr verdient ? Dividende ? Ja, klar. Tui ? Hüstel....

LH Kurs 6,42 Euro
TUI Kurs 6,34 Euro

Fällt was auf ? Böse Zungen würden jetzt behaupten TUI wäre überbewertet.....

Und schlaue Köpfe vergleichen nicht Äpfel mit Birnen

[8-lagig]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.873.074 von Maker123 am 31.05.24 20:49:13

Zitat von Maker123: Nur mal so eine Idee. Wir alle stochern ja im Dunkel, wie das mit den ETFs genau funktioniert. ..... Demnach sollte es ordentlich hoch gehen bis zur Aufnahme in den MDax. Würde aufgrund des Trendkanals 8,30 bis 8,50€ erwarten. Was denkt ihr dazu?

Je mehr ich über den Tellerrand sehe und mir andere Werte ansehe, um so mehr rücke ich von "Traumkursen" oberhalb 8 Euro, oder nur, bescheiden, konstante 8 Euro, ab. Ich sag nur Lufthansa als Vergleich. Wo stehen die ? Wieviel haben die doch gleich im letzten Jahr verdient ? Dividende ? Ja, klar. Tui ? Hüstel....

LH Kurs 6,42 Euro
TUI Kurs 6,34 Euro

Fällt was auf ? Böse Zungen würden jetzt behaupten TUI wäre überbewertet.....

[todi1]

Tui AG - Hannover, Germany-based travel company - To be deleted from FTSE 250 index and replaced by Brunner Investment Trust PLC. Change is with effect Monday, index operator FTSE Russell says. Tui shareholders in February backed a motion to delist from London, while upgrading to a prime standard listing in Frankfurt. The shares began trading on the prime standard segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange last month. FTSE Russell notes Tui will effect a nationality change from UK to Germany within the FTSE Global Equity Index Series.

[todi1]

“AN OVERVIEW OF EQUITY INDEX REBALANCES
Index providers, such as S&P Dow Jones Indices, FTSE Russell and MSCI, are responsible for building and maintaining a wide variety of indexes. This includes determinations about how frequently indexes are reviewed and updated.
Most index providers rebalance their indexes regularly, adding or removing securities or changing the weights of existing index constituents. Indexes typically rebalance on a consistent schedule, but the timing can vary by provider. For example, S&P Dow Jones Indices typically rebalances indexes on the third Friday at the end of each calendar quarter, while rebalances in MSCI indexes occur on the last business day of February, May, August and November.”

[todi1]

BlackRock:
“In certain circumstances, BlackRock, on behalf of the iShares ETFs, may seek to effect purchases and sales between BlackRock clients (including across iShares portfolios), known as “cross-trades,” if BlackRock believes such transactions are appropriate based on each party’s investment objectives and guidelines, subject to applicable law and regulation. For example, if a stock is being removed from Fund A and added to Fund B, those trades may be offset through an internal crossing mechanism, thus reducing overall trade size and resulting impact on the underlying market.
Importantly, on the implementation date of the rebalance, PMs closely monitor stock prices, bid-ask spreads and the cash needs of portfolios in seeking to achieve successful outcomes for funds and clients (note that fund rebalance dates may not occur on the exact same date as index rebalances).”

[todi1]

https://www.blackrock.com/au/intermediaries/ishares/equity-i…

[todi1]

Charles Schwab:
“How index rebalancing affects individual stocks?
With the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index investing, there's been a greater focus on the addition and subtraction of stocks from indexes, including those that are widely followed, such as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. This is because many institutional investors attempt to mirror the performance of these indexes by buying the same stocks. Some funds are even required by their charter or offering prospectus to hold the same stocks.
So, when a stock is added to a widely followed index, millions—and sometimes billions—of purchase dollars flow into that stock, typically driving its price higher. Conversely, when a stock is dropped from an index, it's often sold by institutional players, usually causing it to drop in price. However, these price fluctuations are usually short-lived, and some studies indicate that just being a part of an index has no permanent effect on a stock's value.
When a stock is added to an index, it's often done based on a sustained increase in earnings, appreciation in market value, and positive price momentum. Because of those factors, a stock may exhibit better performance following its addition to an index. But if those factors change, a stock can underperform, even if it's still part of the index.
An interesting corollary is that a stock can be dropped from an index, not because it's been underperforming, but because the index allows only a set number of stocks and room needs to be made for a new one. This can represent a buying opportunity when a stock whose fundamentals remain strong on the initial selling after being dropped from the index.
Rebalancing is a simple fact of life in the world of indexes, so it's good to understand the timing and dynamics.”